Some polls (www.in.gr) in Greece show that 30-35 % prefer to exit the Eurozone.
Who are these people?
1. The usual baseline of nationalist and phobic people that exist in every country; these constantly see conspiracies coming from all sorts of directions. The Jews, the Pope, the West, the East. Any can do as long as adrenalin goes up and fantasy is carried away. This segment is is something like 3-5%.
2. People of essentially a similar psychological background which however have a strong inner drive, although little practical evidence, to believe that they care more about their fellow citizens and society in general. So they feel compelled to fight against capitalism, imperialism and further nonsense. Communists in Greece, although difficult to match in stalinist approaches and mentalities and utter disrespect to the democratic procedures (they always remind us openly that they don't care about constitutions and have their own agenda ending up to the dictatorship of the proletariat...). Rotating around them a number of other leftist groups coming and going now and then. This is a relatively strong segment, maybe 10- 15%.
3. Angered and uninformed people who have the capacity to understand what is at stake here but prefer to vent their anger in any possible way, something they will most certainly repent later. These, in the current circumstances can easily summon up something like 10- 15%.
4. Failed/ corrupt entrepreneurs, a large part of the client system meticulously built by the politicians for 30 years. These see the return to the drachma as an opportunity to remain in the game. Their hope is that things will start again and they hope, this time, to be better positioned. Most of them have already taken their EUROs abroad and will return powerfully back with shiploads of drachmas. Most of these are crippled by a long term sexual relationship with the fat and largely useless Greek public sector and are therefore impotent, incompetent and under-confident for any more natural approach to the issue. They know they will never succeed in doing business in the normal world. Not very big in size, but perhaps the most sinister and powerful of all. 2-3% of rotten businessmen and their puppets here and there
5. Arrogant, corrupt and illiterate trade unionists and their followers, the other side and complement to the Greek client system. All these well understand that their natural position, based on merit, is very very different from their current status and that their privileges are only built on the destruction of the country and the future generations. "Better first among the foxes than last among the lions" as the Chinese proverb, reversely, goes. Thats their motto! This can be up to 20% but it is unlikely that anything above the 3-5% of the leading people here (of the like of Photopoulos, the general, self appointed, manager of the electric company) would go for the drachma. They have children and grand children to think about and some tiny little privileges are worth the sacrifice
All and all the referendum could be very risky indeed, especially as the unbelievable Panandreou decided on this at a moment when segment (3) is growing and can prove decisive.
It seems there will be no referendum. There is also indication that there is some mobility for return to rationalism. Two such initiatives are currently unfolding at http://www.koinonikossyndesmos.org/ (GREEK) and http://www.dimiourgiaxana.gr/ (GREEK)
Very sophisticated articles and blog posts are being published every day about technical solutions to the Greek and European debt problem. They range from Eurobonds to EFSF-leveraging to Modest Proposals, etc. etc. There are undoubtedly brilliant minds at work.
ΑπάντησηΔιαγραφήHere is an appeal to all those brilliant minds: the Greek debt is not going to go away regardless how smart the technical solutions are. On the contrary, the foreign debt of Greece is going to rise going forward; it cannot decline (unless the discussed haircut comes through but even that will be but a drop on a hot stone). So why devote so much brainpower to something which has no near-term solution instead of applying it to specific proposals as to how the Greek economy could become strong? The stronger the Greek economy becomes, the greater the likelihood that more Greek debt can eventually be repaid (or rather: refinanced in capital markets).
The appeal is: come up with proposals how the Greek economy can be transformed into a value-generating, competitive market economy, and grow! One such proposal is here (http://klauskastner.blogspot.com/2011/09/endgame-for-greece.html). Come up with many more!
One could argue that no growth plans for the economy can be implemented before the debt problem is solved. True. But keep it simple!
My suggestion: commit to the holders of Greece's sovereign debt that, say, 10% of government expenditures will be allocated to interest payments over the next 10 years. And then let financial engineers work out combinations of amounts/tenors/interest which can be supported by that amount of interest payments.
Growth is the answer to most debt problems!