Who will benefit and who will loose from a return to the drachma?

(+) = positive impact, (-) = negative impact, (+/ -) = mixed impact, (?) = unknown impact

The economic and social elite (+): Has already a good deal of its accounts abroad. This will, at least, shield it from the adverse devaluation impacts, if not outright benefit it, as it will be able to use hard currency to buy drachma devalued internal goods.

The export oriented activity (+): Companies competing abroad will benefit as they will sell in Europe, Asia, etc., and buy (labor, etc.) in devalued drachmas. Export activity, that is now marginal, will increase significantly, which, at the end, is a benefit for all. This, in fact, is the only socially positive impact. Able people, competing globally and not hugging on the state, will have now far more and better chances.

Local business (+/ -): Per case dependent; no obvious reason for any trend to dominate.

Tourism(+): Part of the export oriented economy, will, more than anyone else, share the benefits of all the export economy.

Construction sector (-): Fatally wounded, will remain so for the mid term. Though it embodies a large part of domestically produced value (not affected by the devaluation) there is no reason for it to get any better. At the same time, the increased export activity will create employment opportunities for immigrants, which may make access to cheap labour for the construction sector even worse.

Unemployed(+): Jobs will be created as a result of the increased, outward economic activity. Badly paid, of course; this, for someone getting back on board in society is a minor issue, and will go by unattended. Unemployed will be, generally, much better off.

Immigrants (+/ -): They will benefit, although they will have to migrate from construction to tourism and more industrial and export oriented sectors. Rather small problem. Those who are interested in sending money to their home countries will find it now however inceasingly difficult.

Agriculture(-): Unfortunately it has made zero progress to develop any serious export potential; beyond, for example, massively selling in containers top class olive oil, at ridiculous prices, to Italians and the like. Misery will continue and will sky-rocket when the EU subsidy policies soon end.

Public employees (-): Will suffer the most. Though the price of vegetables, milk, newspapers will not change dramatically, everything brought from abroad will be 50 -200% more expensive. Cars, TVs, computers, trips to Paris, etc. will be sharply reduced.

Private employees (-): Bad news. Same as their public peers. Even if workers of a multinational or export oriented company, the dramatic lowering of effective salaries will affect them also. Wages are set by opportunity cost considerations and not any profit sharing mentality of entrepreneurs.

Education (+/ -): The flux of capable people abroad will be reduced; unfortunately, not because of any local change (education will be the very- very last to change in Greece), but because of the now huge subsistence and tuition expenses abroad.

Innovation (+): Addressing global markets is the best way to keep you awake and explorative. A significant increase of innovative and creative mentalities will, most likely, result.

Politicians (+/ -): Not really concerned about macroeconomic issues, or anything that does not directly touch upon their relationship to their clientèle or excite the mental diseases that haunt few of them; as a result, words of sympathy, wild and cost free protests against our many "enemies" (EU, US, IMF, etc.) will be loudly voiced. Being part of the elite, most of them, they will not miss to benefit economically; however, hardships to walk on the streets may increase, taking a good deal of the benefits and the pride away (increased security costs, need for bodyguards, feeling of threat, etc.)

Banks (?): This is the really big issue for which all predictions are uncertain. Perhaps the main reason for serious concerns, as regards the return to the drachma.

Hear well out if you have a (-) !

It will only happen when everybody fiercely denounces it !!

Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:

Δημοσίευση σχολίου